Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-22-05
Period: 2005-01-01--01-31
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
At the forecast page http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/forecast/
the solar wind density and velocity occasionally showed some strange variation
due to the algorithm computing the 10-minute averages. Data gaps in the solar
wind data from ACE are stored in the database as data with some unrealistic
values, like -999.9 nT for Bz. Previously that was used to find data gaps to
exclude them from the 10-minute averages. However, for some occasions there
exist realistic values that are not correct, which is indicated by a flag. The
value of the flag goes from 0 (=OK) to 9 (=data gap). The model now uses the
flag to check for bad values or data gaps, and only data with flag=0 are
included in the averages.
During proton events plasma data from the
ACE/SWEPAM instrument will often be incorrect. However, the SOHO proton monitor
(PM) does not suffer from this problem. Therefore we now also store the SOHO/PM
data in the database and include the density and velocity in the plots. The ACE
data is available close to real time while the SOHO data show a variable delay
of a few minutes to hours. The forecast of dX and dY is still based on the ACE
data. The dB/dt forecast plots include the SOHO data from 20 Jan. 2005 and the
GIC plots from 24 Jan. 2005.
The forecasts of dB/dt and GIC during
latest CME and proton events over the period 17-21 Jan 2005 can be viewed from
the archived plots. Following the dB/dt-link or the GIC-link from http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/forecast/
and then selecting "archive" a list starting at 1st Jan 2004 to
current date is displayed. Scrolling down the list the
"20050117"-link will show the situation on 17 Jan 2005 when the
proton event disturbed the ACE/SWEPAM instrument. Consequently the solar wind
velocity is severely underestimated leading to incorrect forecasts. One can
also see that up until around 14:00 CET the forecasted dB/dt for Brorfelde
(BFE) agrees well with the observed data. During the whole of 18 Jan the
ACE/SWEPAM continued to produce erroneous data. Then on 19 Jan, when the proton
flux dropped, the solar wind plasma data showed correct values and also the
forecasts.
Another proton event affected the SWEPAM
instrument starting around 08:00 CET on 20 Jan. On the dB/dt forecast plots the
SOHO/PM solar wind density and velocity are now also shown. On 21 Jan the
ACE/SWEPAM instrument is basically working except for short periods during
18:00-21:00 CET. Especially, for the 10-minute interval 19:40-19:50 CET both
the 10-minute average density and velocity drops to extremely low values
although the flag is 0, indicating that the data should be correct. As a result
the dB/dt forecast for BFE reach too high values.
To summarise we see that the forecasted
dB/dt at Brorfelde show good agreement with the observed data as long as the
ACE/SWEPAM instrument works correctly. In the future the forecast algorithms
should be changed to incorporate the SOHO/PM data during events when the SWEPAM
instrument is not working. However, the real time forecasts will still be
mostly incorrect during proton events as the SOHO/PM data is usually not
available in real-time.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep and Oct
2004 based on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN version 0.3 can be
found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400
Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind
data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been developed. Input to draft
Technical Note WP400 has been delivered.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architecture has been identified and linear filter
constructed.
Optimal forecasting model for
implementation has been identified.
Software has been developed. Input to draft Technical Note
WP400 has been delivered.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. A fluxgate magnetometer is being installed close to
Vxj.
Software requirements document is being
prepared. Draft showing preliminary content can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/500/
Prototype
software system is ready.
System manual
will be written in
html-format
User manual will
be provided on-line.
Test report is
being prepared.
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work on cost benefit analysis has started in
close collaboration with the costumer and some material has been delivered from
them.
Forecast service has been running since early
September 2004
GIC events are being monitored and one
important event identified that gave good
possibilities to test the
service.
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data
in the surroundings of Oskarshamn
necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the estimated time. A
solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us has been decided
early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting was held 22 October to finally
resolve this problem.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Progress payment Invoice has been sent to ESTEC
late November. Payment not yet received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2005.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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