Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-20-04
Period: 2004-11-01--11-30
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
Presentations including material on GIC
phenomena have been prepared for
the ģFirst European Space Weather Weekī at ESTEC
29 Nov-3 Dec.
Discussions about the application of 10 min
root-mean-square values of ground magnetic field variations to GIC forecasting
were continued at a meeting in Lund on November 24 (participants: Henrik
Lundstedt, Peter Wintoft, Magnus Wik, Risto Pirjola) and at another meeting at
ESTEC on November 30 (participants: Peter Wintoft, Magnus Wik, Ingmar
Kronfeldt, Ari Viljanen, Risto Pirjola). It now seems clear that those RMS
values, together with the spectral shape of magnetic variations, enable to
estimate an upper limit of RMS values of GIC. These issues were also discussed
in Peter Wintoft's poster at the ģFirst European
Space Weather Weekī.
Another approach to be performed in the SDA and
discussed at the meetings in November will be a direct calculation of GIC at
Oskarshamn. This requires ground magnetic data and some information about the
ground conductivity structure for calculating the surface impedance, and power
system data around Oskarshamn (which are not yet available). It would also be
good to use some samples of recorded GIC at Oskarshamn to be able to ģadjustī
the ground conductivity model. The FMI team has a lot of experience of this
kind of studies in Finland.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep 2004 based
on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. One part of this is the
decision that a fluxgate
magnetometer shall be installed close to the town
of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work has started in close colaboration with the
costumer
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the
estimated time. A solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us
has been decided early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting was held 22
October to finally resolve this problem.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Progress payment
Invoice has been sent to
ESTEC.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2005.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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