Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-19-04
Period: 2004-10-01--10-31
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
An important step forward in
the SDA was the meeting at Svenska Kraftnt, SVK in Stockholm on October 22.
The participants were: Bertil Kieln, Stefan Arnborg, Dan Hbinette, and Kalle
Jonsson from SVK. Peter Wintoft, Magnus Wik and Risto Pirjola represented the
SDA.
After Bertil had introduced
SVK and Peter had talked about space weather in general and about the SDA in
greater detail, Risto explained which power system configuration and parameter
details are needed in a calculation of GIC. Concerning stations the information
required can be summarised as follows:
name and/or number of the station
geographical latitude
geographical longitude
resistance of each parallel transformer
(=Rphase/3)
resistance of each neutral point reactor
actual grounding resistance
accurate coupling diagram which shows how parallel transformers are
connected (i.e. do they have a common neutral point reactor or separate
reactors, etc.)
information about autotransformers.
and concerning transmission
lines the data are:
end stations
resistance (=Rphase/3)
a few points (latitudes and longitudes)
describing the route of the
line
information about possible series capacitors.
After useful discussions, it
was decided to consider the 400 kV system only and, as originally planned, to
be limited to southern Sweden with special emphasis on the station at the east
coast where GIC recordings are going on.
Due to administrative security
reasons, it would be complicated to deliver the power grid data to FMI
personnel. Therefore it was decided that the data will be forwarded to Lund,
and Risto Pirjola will 'teach' Magnus in the GIC calculation by using some fake
data.
Unofficial discussions about
subjects associated with the SDA were carried out between Henrik Lundstedt and
Risto Pirjola in Trieste, Italy, in connection with a COST 724 meeting on
October 10 to 12 and between Magnus Wik and Risto Pirjola in Stockholm after
the SVK meeting on October 22.
Antti Pulkkinen (+ co-authors)
submitted a manuscript about the Oct. 2003 storm for publication in the AGU
Space Weather Journal in mid-October. It also contains a description about the
blackout due to GIC in Malm, southern Sweden.
Discussions about the use of
10 min RMS values of the ground magnetic field, together with the spectral
shape of magnetic variations, whose predictions will be provided in this SDA,
for GIC calculations and estimations were carried out. Ideas about being able
to estimate the energy involved in GIC are being considered.
The Danish Meteorological
Institute (DMI) and the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) in Uppsala were
contacted regarding real time geomagnetic data. SGU are not able to provide any
data unless their costs can be covered. Thus, we decided at this stage not to
include the Uppsala real time data. However, DMI will provide real time data
from the Brorfelde magnetometer for at least the extent of this project.
IRF-Lund now receives the data in almost real time via e-mail every 15 minutes
and the data are stored in the database. It was agreed that IRF may not further
distribute any data. They will only be used for plots on the GIC forecast
pages. See also the updated WP 200 TN http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
The forecast pages have been
updated to include the real time dX and dY data
from Brorfelde. See
http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/forecast/.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted. It can be found at
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf
(2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.
The Technical Note has been updated in Sep 2004 based
on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid..
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data are included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be
used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric
field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment of the model and
the final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft Technical Note is ready.
http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation has been
identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in progress. One part of this is the
decision that a fluxgate
magnetometer shall be installed close to the town
of Vxj.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Work has started in close colaboration with the
costumer
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data
in the surroundings of Oskarshamn
necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the estimated time. A
solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us has been decided
early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting was held 22 October to finally
resolve this problem.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Fall
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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