Software: Microsoft Office

Swedish Institute of Space Physics

Real-Time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents, GIC

Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications

ESTEC/Contract No. 16953/02/NL/LvH

Monthly Progress Report

GIC-MR-18-04

Period: 2004-09-01--09-30

Author: Lars Eliasson

1. Progress status

Henrik Lundstedt has participated in a meeting 22 September in Stockholm organised by ELFORSK (our ìcostumerî) about Solar storms. Henrik gave a talk with the title ìThe Sun, space weather and GIC effects in Sweden.î Henrik reports that it was a very interesting meeting, he had interesting discussions with several representatives from the power companies and he was also interviewed by a journal with main interest in the power industry. The power grid data that we need for this study was also discussed and it was agreed to have a meeting to arrange the practical details concerning these data on 22 October.

 

A paper "The Sun, Space weather and GIC Effects in Sweden"  by Henrik Lundstedt has been submitted to Advances in Space Reserach 29 Sep. It is based on an invited talk given at the COSPAR meeting in Stockholm.

 

We have also initiated discussions to finalize the work needed for WP600. The needed material will be available well before the end of the contract time.

 

The TN in WP200 has been updated according to comments by ESA/ESTEC (Alexi Glover). It can found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.

Discussions on retrieving real time geomagnetic data from Brorfelde and Uppsala has been initiated. Data from Brorfelde will be received at least for the duration of the Pilot Project. It is agreed that the data may only be used in plots, and that the data may not be further distributed. This new information will be added to the TN.

A draft Technical Note for WP300 can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.

In WP400 a new model has been developed that predicts the RMS and MAX GIC using the predicted RMS dB. It is a linear model with BFEdX, BFEdY, UPSdX, and UPSdY as inputs. A draft TN has been produced and can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/.

In WP500 the real time forecast pages have been updated. They can be found at http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/forecast/. The pages now include the RMS and MAX GIC forecasts. The archived forecasts are also available from the pages.

WP 100 User requirements

The URD has been accepted. It can be found at

http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/urd_1_5.pdf (2003-12-18).

WP200 Database

Solar wind data have been collected.

GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.

A database with geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exists.

The Technical Note has been updated in Sep 2004 based on a preliminary review made by ESTEC. The TN can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/. It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data about the power grid..

WP201 Solar wind and GIC datasets

The solar wind and GIC datasets have been selected for the project and input given to the Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC data are included in the TN300 and TN400.

Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be used.

WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data in a dense grid

Model event set has been constructed and selected.

Data for the geomagnetic database have been collected.

Ionospheric currents have been calculated.

Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).

WP300 Model for computation of GIC from geomagnetic field

Software package is constructed.

A draft of the Technical Note for WP300 describing the calculation of the geoelectric field in general can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/300/.

WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

Software applicable to the computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.

Input to draft Technical Note WP300 has been delivered.

WP302 Model for computation of GIC from geoelectric field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of GIC from geoelectric field.

Adjustment of the model and the final validation to be performed.

WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind data

A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and testing has been identified. It is available at  http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html

Java software for the neural network has been developed.

Draft Technical Note is ready. http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/400/

WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical grid from solar wind data

Datasets for training, validation, and testing have been generated.

Neural network architectures have been identified.

Neural networks have been developed and are being validated.

Optimal neural network for implementation has been identified.

Java software has been developed.

WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from solar wind

Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for the study.

Neural network architectures have been identified.

Neural networks have been developed and are being validated.

Optimal neural network for implementation shall be identified.

Java software has been developed.

WP500 Service implemention

Work with implementing services is in progress. One part of this is the decision that a fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to the town of V”xj–.

 

Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14 according to the schedule

Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14 according to the schedule

System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the schedule

User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the schedule

Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the schedule

 

WP600 Cost-benefit analysis

Work has started in close colaboration with the costumer

Cost benefit report ready at T0 + 24

 

WP700 Management

Business plan ready at T0 + 24

 

2. Problem areas/reasons for slippages

Power system data in the surroundings of Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have not been received at the estimated time. A solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us has been decided early June within the ELFORSK project. A meeting will be held 22 October to finally resolve this problem.

 

3. Events anticipated to be accomplished during next reporting period

No major event.

 

4. Status report on all long lead or critical delivery items

None

 

5. Action items

No open

 

6. Milestone payment status

Advance payment has been received.

 

7. Expected dates for major schedule items

Date for the next Progress Meeting is Fall 2004.

 


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