Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-17-04
Period: 2004-08-01--08-31
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
The forecasting models for the
rate-of-change (dB/dt) of the local geomagnetic field have been further
optimized. Currently four models have been developed that predicts the log RMS
dB/dt, formed over 10-minute intervals, for
Uppsala X and Y, and Brorfelde X and
Y. The Uppsala models reach a correlation of 0.8 and the Brorfelde models a
correlation of 0.78. Transforming the output from log RMS to RMS the
correlation drops to 0.74 and 0.68, respectively.
The models have been
implemented for real time operation. Every 10 minutes a Java program is
executed that collects the solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from the
IRF MySQL database, runs the neural networks and produces an output file. Then
the plots are created using GNU Plot. The forecasts can be found at http://solarwind.lund.irf.se/gic/dB/LocaldB.html.
The web pages are continuously updated which means that the contents will
change over time.
We are still waiting for the
power system data (e.g. coordinates of the stations, information about
connections, other configurational and topological details, resistance values)
for our GIC model calculations. We have had several contacts with the data
providers and are promised new information
beginning of September.
The summer student Esko
Araj”rvi has made simulations of the effects of neutral point reactors and
series capacitors on the overall GIC distribution in a power system. The
calculations concern the Finnish 400 kV system in its older configuration but
the results can be used more generally when considering, e.g., possibilities of
reducing GIC and its impacts by engineering means. The summer work finished now
will lead to a manuscript of a scientific paper and possibly to a presentation
at the European Space Weather Week Workshop at
ESTEC in November-December
2004.
WP 100 User
requirements
The URD has been accepted.
URD
version 1.5 in pdf-format (2003-12-18).
WP200 Database
Solar wind data have been collected.
GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.
A database with geomagnetic data, solar
wind data, and GIC data exist.
Draft Technical Note is ready see http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/.
It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data
about the power grid. A preliminary review has
been made by ESTEC.
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
The solar wind and GIC datasets have been
selected for the project and input given to the
Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC
data shall be included in the TN300 and TN400.
Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been
calculated. The 400 kV power net shall be used. The 220 kV power net will not
be used.
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Model event set has been constructed and
selected.
Data for the geomagnetic database have
been collected.
Ionospheric currents have been calculated.
Data set with geomagnetic data
grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Software package
is constructed.
A draft of the Technical Note for WP300
describing the calculation of the geoelectric field in general has been
written.
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
Software applicable to the computation of
geoelectric field from geomagnetic field has been prepared.
Input to draft Technical Note
WP300 has been delivered.
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Adjustment
of the model and the
final validation to be performed.
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and
testing has been identified. It is available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
Java software for the neural network has been
developed.
Draft
Technical Note is ready.
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Datasets for training, validation, and
testing have been generated.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Datasets for training, validation, and testing are being modified for
the study.
Neural network architectures have been identified.
Neural networks have been developed and
are being validated.
Optimal neural network for implementation
shall be identified.
Java software has been
developed.
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services is in
progress and no delay is foreseen. One part of this
is the decision that a
fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to
the town of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 14
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 14 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Start T0+12
according to the schedule
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
Power system data in the surroundings of
Oskarshamn necessary for GIC calculations have
not been received at the estimated
time. A solution on how the power grid data will be delivered to us has been
decided early June within the ELFORSK project. The agreement with "Svenska
Kraftn”t" is also in principal now ready.
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Fall
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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