Software: Microsoft Office

Swedish Institute of Space Physics

Real-Time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents, GIC

Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications

ESTEC/Contract No. 16953/02/NL/LvH

Monthly Progress Report

GIC-MR-11-04

Period: 2004-02-01--02-29

Author: Lars Eliasson

1. Progress status

The database contains since January 2004 the data described in the URD. The technical note of the database, together with information on how to access the database, are available at the internal webpage for WP 200 http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/. Additional data may be added to the database during the project.

Data from WP 300 have been delivered so that work may proceed on WP 401 for the development of the forecast model of the time derivative of the local geomagnetic field over the southern part of Sweden using solar wind data.

Progress has been made on WP 402 for the direct forecasting of GIC from solar wind data. Through a correlation study with local geomagnetic field it has been found that part of the signal in the measured GIC is not related to the space weather. The signal basically consists of a slowly varying (more than one hour) component of a few Amperes. Through a wavelet filtering technique this component may be removed. Development of neural network models has started that aims at predicting the GIC values with varying time resolution. Alternative approaches are also studied in which the maximum absolute GIC over different time intervals (5 min, 10 min, 1 hour) are predicted. The technical note for WP 400 is in progress.

After a detailed visual inspection, the interpolated magnetic field database was revised using fine-tuned interpolation parameters. The purpose of the revision was to minimize the unphysical features observed in the field patterns.

The interpolated magnetic field of the selected 27 active days in 1998-2000 has been used to calculate the geoelectric field in southern Sweden. Preliminary results show that the spatial variation is mostly smooth in this region, which was expected for subauroral latitudes.

Writing of the technical note of WP300 has started concerning the general calculation of the electric field.

WP 100 User requirements

The URD has been updated to cope with the comments from ESTEC.

 

URD version 1.5 in pdf-format (2003-12-18).

 

Older versions of the URD can be found at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/100/

 

WP200 Database

Solar wind data have been collected.

Observed GIC data from south Sweden have been collected.

Power grid layout for the GIC periods has been studied.

A database with gridded geomagnetic data, solar wind data, and GIC data exist.

Information about GIC-data shall be included in the database.

Draft Technical Note is ready see http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/. It contains four parts: the solar wind, the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data about the power grid.

WP201 Solar wind and GIC datasets

The solar wind and GIC datasets have been selected for the project and input given to the Technical Note (WP200). Statistical analysis of solar wind and GIC data shall be included in the TN.

Ground magnetic field in a dense grid has been calculated. The 400 kV power net is used. The 220 kV power net will not be used. It is not connected to OKG.

WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data in a dense grid

Model event set has been constructed and selected.

Geomagnetic database has been collected.

Ionospheric currents have been calculated.

Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready and input given to the Technical Note (WP200).

WP300 Model for computation of GIC from geomagnetic field

Software package is constructed.

Technical note is being prepared.

WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

Compilation of Earthís conductivity models.

Adjustment of the fast computation of the electric field.

Computation of geoelctrical field values.

 

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field.

Input to Technical Note WP300 has been delivered.

WP302 Model for computation of GIC from geoelectric field

Perform simple demonstration.

Locate most GIC-sensitive sites.

 

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of GIC from geoelectric field.

Input to Technical Note WP300 has been delivered.

WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind data

Will start by comparing the forecast of B-field from Uppsala with measured values. It is important to cover the high values of dB/dt. A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for analysis and testing has been identified. It is available at  http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html

 

Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

 

Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

 

WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical grid from solar wind data

Work has started.

Create datasets for training, validation, and testing.

Identify neural network architectures.

Train and validate neural networks.

Identify optimal neural network for implementation.

Develop software package implementing the optimal model.

Test model.

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

Input to Technical Note  ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from solar wind

Work has started.

Create datasets for training, validation, and testing.

Identify neural network architectures.

Train and validate neural networks.

Identify optimal neural network for implementation.

Develop software package implementing the optimal model.

Test model.

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

Input to Technical Note ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP500 Service implemention

Work with implementing services is in progress and no delay is foreseen. One part of this is the decision that a fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to the town of V”xj–.

 

Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

 

WP600 Cost-benefit analysis

Start T0+12 according to the schedule

Cost benefit report ready at T0 + 24

 

WP700 Management

Business plan ready at T0 + 24

 

2. Problem areas/reasons for slippages

None

 

3. Events anticipated to be accomplished during next reporting period

No major event during February.

 

4. Status report on all long lead or critical delivery items

None

 

5. Action items

No Open

 

6. Milestone payment status

Advance payment has been received.

 

7. Expected dates for major schedule items

Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring 2004.

 


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