Swedish
Institute of Space Physics
Real-Time Forecast Service for
Geomagnetically Induced Currents,
GIC
Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications
ESTEC/Contract No.
16953/02/NL/LvH
Monthly Progress Report
GIC-MR-8-03
Period: 2003-11-01--11-30
Author: Lars Eliasson
1.
Progress status
Lars Eliasson, Henrik Lundstedt, Peter
Wintoft, Magnus Wik, Risto Pirjola, and Antti Pulkkinen attended the Space
Weather Workshop 3-5 November at ESTEC. A status presentation of the GIC
project was given.
Work on the database (WP200) and the TN for
the database has continued. Software is developed for the automatic update of
the ACE 1 minute plasma and magnetic field data. Software for the storage of
ground magnetic field data into the database has been developed. Tests with
preliminary magnetic field data have been performed. GIC data from the years
1998-2000 have been prepared for the database (WP200).
A basic
geomagnetic database with one-minute
values was generated using recordings from stations nearby southern Sweden (see
Fig. 1). Included are all IMAGE magnetometer array sites having data for
selected period and seven INTERMAGNET stations BFE, ESK, HAD, HLP, LER, NGK,
WNG. Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has the main responsibility of the
IMAGE and all data were accessible directly from the server at FMI. INTERMAGNET
data were downloaded automatically via anonymous ftp from the INTERMAGNET
ftp-server. Both data are freely available for scientific studies. The database
was created for a period 1998-2002 for which ACE solar wind and definitive
geomagnetic data exists. Written software enables easy extension of the
database if new stations or new periods with definitive data need to be
included to the geomagnetic database.
Fig. 1
Software for computation of interpolated
spatially dense geomagnetic database was written. The software uses the basic
geomagnetic database for computation of ionospheric equivalent currents from
which the magnetic field can be interpolated to any point in the modeling area.
The spatially dense geomagnetic database is built after the selection of the
most interesting GIC events of the period 1998-2002.
A list of interesting events (WP400) to be used for
analysis and testing has been identified. The list will be available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/wp/200/201/eventList.html
WP 100 User
requirements
Draft URD was resubmitted to ESTEC for comments
September 2003. ESTEC (Alexi
Glover) has sent comments regarding the URD. The URD will be updated to cope
with the comments from ESTEC.
Final URD at T0 +
3 according to the schedule
WP200 Database
Information about GIC-data shall be
included in the database.
Draft Technical Note is ready. It contains four parts: the solar wind,
the magnetic field, GIC-data, and data about the
power grid.
Technical note at T0 + 6 according to the
schedule
WP201 Solar
wind and GIC datasets
We shall only take the 400 kV power net into account. The 220 kV power
net is not connected to OKG.
Data set with GIC data ready at T0 + 4.5
according to the schedule
WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data
in a dense grid
Work has started.
Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready at T0
+ 4.5 according to the schedule
WP300 Model for computation of GIC from
geomagnetic field
Different methods to estimate GIC shall
be compared.
Program code exists.
Software package ready at T0 + 6 according to
the schedule
Technical note ready at T0 + 6 according to the
schedule
WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric
field from geomagnetic field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field
Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to
the schedule
WP302 Model for computation of GIC from
geoelectric field
FMI has prepared software applicable to the
computation of GIC from geoelectric field.
Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to
the schedule
WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar
wind data
Will start by comparing the forecast of
B-field from Uppsala with measured
values. It is important to cover the high values of dB/dt. A list of
interesting events (WP400) to be used for
analysis and testing has been
identified. It will be
available at http://www.lund.irf.se/gicpilot/gicpilotinternal/eventList.html
Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to
the schedule
Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the
schedule
WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical
grid from solar wind data
Start T0+5
according to the schedule
Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to
the schedule
WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from
solar wind
Start T0+5
according to the schedule
Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to
the schedule
WP500 Service
implemention
Work with implementing services has started.
One part of this is the decision that a fluxgate magnetometer shall be installed close to the
town of V”xj–.
Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12
according to the schedule
Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12
according to the schedule
System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the
schedule
WP600
Cost-benefit analysis
Start T0+12
according to the schedule
Cost benefit
report ready at T0 + 24
WP700 Management
Business plan
ready at T0 + 24
2. Problem areas/reasons
for slippages
None
3. Events anticipated to be
accomplished during next reporting period
No major event
during December.
4. Status report on all
long lead or critical delivery items
None
5.
Action items
No Open
6.
Milestone payment status
Advance payment
has been received.
7. Expected dates for major
schedule items
Date for the next Progress Meeting is Spring
2004.
Swedish Institute of Space
Physics
PO Box 812
SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
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