Development of AI Methods in Spacecraft Anomaly Predictions 

The space plasma and radiation form a hazardous environment to Earth orbiting spacecraft. Spacecraft problems are regularly experienced which can in extreme cases lead to a failure or loss of the spacecraft. It is important to be able to predict and analyse spacecraft anomalies that are caused by the space environment. The space environment is determined by the space weather, which ultimately is driven by the Sun. To be able to predict spacecraft anomalies it is necessary to compile the knowledge and observations of the space weather, which includes the Sun, the solar wind, and the Earth magnetosphere and relate it to the effects on spacecraft. 

The aim of this project is to develop tools for the analysis and prediction of spacecraft anomalies. The main methods will be the use of artificial intelligence (AI) such as neural networks and fuzzy systems. The models will run in real time by collecting the necessary inputs from solar-terrestrial databases and produce predictions on the time scales of hours to days. A database of spacecraft anomalies will also be set up. 

The project Development of AI Methods in Spacecraft Anomaly Predictions is carried out by the Swedish Institute of Space Physics and is funded by the ESTEC contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC) and monitored by the ESA's Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section. The project is a continuation of the Study of Plasma and Energetic Electron Environment and Effects (SPEE) also funded by ESA. 

Further information can be found below. 

Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Divison
Lund, Sweden

Last updated by Peter Wintoft, Monday, June 3, 2002.