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SAAPS, Version 1.01 |
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During times of enhanced geomagnetic activity the electron flux increases with the following risk of surface and internal charging. The daily sum of the geomagnetic disturbance index can be used as a proxy of the level of activity. The sum of Kp can be used as an indicator of whether there are increased risk of surface or internal charging anomalies.
With this tool the threshold level for the daily summed Kp can be found for user submitted anomaly data.
First the events must be entered by pushing the "Edit Events ..." button. A dialogue window appears into which the events can be typed or copy-pasted from a text editor.
Then the non-events must be entered. These are times of when no anomaly were observed. The non-events can either be entered manually by pushing the "Edit Non-Events ..." button or automatically by pushing the "Random Non-Events ..." button. The random events are selected from the dates in the events range but avoiding the event dates.
The optimal time delay and threshold levels can then be found when the "Optimize" button is pushed. A search will be carried out by introducing a time delay between the daily sum Kp and the events, and by changing the threshold level.
The time delay is varied from -5 days to +5 days in one day steps. A time delay of -5 days means that there is a five day forecast possibility from the electron fluence.
The sum Kp threshold level is varied from 0 to 72.
When the search is finished the result is displayed in the text areas, and the found time delay and threshold level are shown in their respective text fields.
The result is given in probabilities of whether the predictions are actually observed and whether the observations are predicted. The probabilities must be above 0.5 in order for the model to be useful.
A time delay of 0 (zero) days means that when the sum Kp goes above the threshold level the increased risk of charging follows immediately. A time delay of -1 day means that the sum Kp is leading the internal charging with one day, i.e. when the sum Kp goes above the threshold level the charging will follow one day later. A positive time delay means that there is no forecasting.
The time delay and threshold level can also be altered by changing the values in the text fields. Pushing "Run" will calculate the probabilities for the new values.
Peter Wintoft |
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