The daily sums of the geomagnetic index Kp can be used to estimate the risk of anomalies. If the sum Kp is below a threshold level the risk of anomaly is low and if it is above the threshold the risk is high.
Based on the dates from an anomaly list the sum Kp is calculated. The threshold level that best match the anomaly data is then found. It is also examined whether there is a time delay between the sum Kp and the anomaly.
To carry out the analysis do the following:
The window will now display the result. The optimization procedure carries out a search by varying the time delay and the threshold level. The optimal model is the model that gives the highest probability of correct predictions.
The time delay is varied from -5 days to +5 days in one day steps. A time delay of -5 days means that there is a five day forecast possibility from the electron fluence.
The sum Kp threshold level is varied from 0 to 72.
Other values of time delays and threshold levels can be entered. Then, pushing the "Run" button will use these new values and the calculated probabilities will be displayed.