Swedish Institute of Space Physics

Real-Time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents, GIC

Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications

ESTEC/Contract No. 16953/02/NL/LvH

Monthly Progress Report

GIC-MR-5-03

Period: 2003-08-01--08-31

Author: Lars Eliasson

1. Progress status

Work on the URD (WP 100) has continued. Modifications has been made based on new input. The updated version will be delivered to ESTEC in the beginning of September.

Work has started on the GIC database (WP 200). It is now possible to start analysing data received from OKG.

A summary of the harmonisation of GIC calculations was prepared and discussed by people working in the project (see email from Risto Pirjola of August 13). The GIC calculation procedure has two steps: the "geophysical step" and the "engineering step". GS refers to the determination of the horizontal geoelectric field at the Earth's surface and requires information of the ground conductivity structure and of ionospheric currents (or of the ground magnetic field). ES is the actual GIC computation whose input comprises the configuration and resistances of the network under consideration. Special attention has now been paid to the presentation and format of the network data in ES. FMI has prepared software applicable to both steps of a GIC calculation.

Basic discussions about the calculation of GIC have also been performed between representatives of FMI and the Fingrid power company in Finland.

Antti Pulkkinen defended his PhD thesis dealing with ground effects of space weather at the University of Helsinki, Finland, on August 30. The thesis contains items related to the calculation of GIC.

We are soon expecting to take the final decision concerning the new magnetometer that is essential for this service.

WP 100 User requirements

Draft URD will be resubmitted to ESTEC for comments September 2003.

ESTEC can comment on the first version but it might be more efficient to wait until the second draft is delivered.

Updated URD at T0 + 2 according to the schedule

Final URD at T0 + 3 according to the schedule

WP200 Database

Work has started on the GIC database

Technical note at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP201 Solar wind and GIC datasets

Work has started.

Data set with GIC data ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP202 Dataset with computed geomagnetic data in a dense grid

Work has started.

Data set with geomagnetic data grid ready at T0 + 4.5 according to the schedule

WP300 Model for computation of GIC from geomagnetic field

Work has started.

Software package ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 6 according to the schedule

WP301 Model for computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of geoelectric field from geomagnetic field

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP302 Model for computation of GIC from geoelectric field

FMI has prepared software applicable to the computation of GIC from geoelectric field.

Software package ready at T0 + 5.5 according to the schedule

WP400 Forecasting model of GIC from solar wind data

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

Technical note ready at T0 + 9 according to the schedule

WP401 Forecasting model of geomagnetical grid from solar wind data

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP402 Forecasting model of observed GIC from solar wind

Start T0+5 according to the schedule

Software package ready at T0 + 8.5 according to the schedule

WP500 Service implemention

Start T0+3 according to the schedule

Software requirements document ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Prototype software system ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

System manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

User manual ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

Test report ready at T0 + 12 according to the schedule

WP600 Cost-benefit analysis

Start T0+12 according to the schedule

Cost benefit report ready at T0 + 24

WP700 Management

Buisiness plan ready at T0 + 24

2. Problem areas/reasons for slippages

None

3. Events anticipated to be accomplished during next reporting period

Second version of draft URD sent to ESTEC for comments.

4. Status report on all long lead or critical delivery items

None

5. Action items

No Open

6. Milestone payment status

Advance payment has been received.

7. Expected dates for major schedule items

Date for the second Progress Meeting is during the workshop at ESTEC 3-6 November 2003.